Ethanol: Brazilian supply expected to meet increased gasoline blend (E32)

An article published by Bnamericas shows how Brazil's ethanol supply should comfortably support the increase in the biofuel's blend in gasoline from 30% to 32% (E32), a measure approved by the National Council for Energy Policy (Conselho Nacional de Política Energética, CNPE) in July 2026, with an initial validity of 180 days.

As explained by Marcus D'Elia, partner at Leggio Consulting, additional demand for the fuel is expected to rise by approximately 900 million liters per year — a projection 10% below the estimate from the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (União Nacional da Indústria da Cana-de-Açúcar, Unica), which forecasts 1 billion liters. According to D'Elia, imported ethanol volume represents a "negligible share of the domestic market," which produced 35 million m³ in 2025 — a volume further protected by the 18% tariff Brazil already applies to imported product.

D'Elia also believes the impact on consumer prices should be limited, given that the gap between the gasoline price set by Petrobras and the import parity price stands at 39%.

Read the full article here: https://www.bnamericas.com/en/analysis/can-brazil-meet-the-growing-demand-for-ethanol