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Assessment of potential market and economic-financial projections.

Segment: Ports – Solution: Market Projection/Financial Evaluation

Customer

  • One of the leading independent asset managers in Brazil, with over 50 funds distributed throughout 20 years of experience in Private Equity, Infrastructure, and Structured Credit.

  • Through an Infrastructure Investment Fund (FIP-IE) with shares traded on the Brazilian stock exchange, the asset manager holds an indirect 22.9% stake in a significant container port terminal.

  • Market Value of the Fund: ~R$ 928 Million (Jan/2016).

  • Market Value of the Asset: ~R$ 4.0 Billion (Jan/2016).

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CHALLENGES

  • The project's objective was to update the report originally prepared in 2019 (and updated in 2022) considering new market and macroeconomic assumptions to reflect new perspectives on container traffic and the competitive dynamics/capacity of relevant clusters.

  • The main challenge was in projecting the asset's cash flows, incorporating the most recent results and new evidence and trends in the sector.

PERFORMANCE

  • Projection of market share capture for the domestic container market based on the competitive/regulatory environment and new investment projects, and of capture per terminal using the numerical model for ship servicing.

  • Update of the financial model, dividend flow projection, and asset pricing considering the new projections for volume, fees, OPEX, and CAPEX.

RESULTS

  • Preparation and dissemination of an updated report consolidating the vision of the Brazilian container market and the potential market for the asset, including updated projections of the Port's Income Statement, Balance Sheet, and Cash Flow.

  • By updating the estimate of the dividend flow generated by the Port and the fund's equity stake in the asset, the value of the fund's unit was calculated at R$ 258.38.

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