Case Study
Assessment of market potential and economic-financial projections
Segment: Ports
Solutions: Market Projections / Financial Evaluation
Client
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One of the leading independent asset managers in Brazil, with more than 50 funds distributed over 20 years of experience in Private Equity, Infrastructure, and Structured Credit.
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Through an infrastructure fund with units traded on the Brazilian stock exchange, the company holds an indirect equity stake of more than 20% in one of Brazil’s leading private ports.
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Fund Market Value: ~R$928 million (Jan/2026).
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Asset Market Value: ~R$4.0 billion (Jan/2026).
Challenges
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The project's objective was to update the report originally prepared in 2019 (and updated in 2022), considering new market and macroeconomic assumptions to reflect new outlooks for container throughput and the competitive dynamics/capacity of the relevant clusters.
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The main challenge was in projecting the asset's financial flows, incorporating the most recent results and new industry evidence and trends.
Our Approach
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Projection of volume capture in the national container market based on the competitive/regulatory environment and new investment projects, as well as terminal-level capture using the numerical model for vessel service.
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Update of the financial model, dividend flow projection, and asset pricing, considering new volume, tariff, OPEX, and CAPEX projections.
Results
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Preparation and delivery of the updated report consolidating the view of the Brazilian container market and the asset's potential market, including updated income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow projections for the asset.
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By updating the estimated dividend flow generated by the asset and the fund's equity stake, we calculated the estimated fund unit value at approximately R$260,00.